Rethinking the 2025 Consumer Holiday Playbook
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are just around the corner, and this year’s season looks different. Analysts expect U.S. holiday retail sales to grow between 3% and 4%, reaching nearly $1 trillion overall, but shoppers are approaching it with caution.
Spending per household is expected to dip about 10% from last year and three out of four consumers say prices feel higher across categories, according to Deloitte. Many customers have been holding out to see what offers brands put on the table.
That mix of caution, a shorter shopping season, and ongoing pricing pressure is shaping how brands plan, test, and adapt. We sat down with Stacey Howe, SVP of E-Commerce and Growth Marketing at Kizik, to talk about how the hands-free leader is approaching this season, what’s changing about consumer behavior, and why agility and real-time data matter more than ever.
Q: How are you thinking about the 2025 holiday season?
Every holiday season is unique, but this one feels particularly dynamic. There’s a lot of macro uncertainty, from tariffs to price sensitivity to headlines changing daily. It’s created an environment where consumer behavior is shifting quickly.
We’ll see people responding to that in real time. There might be moments of optimism when they start browsing or researching, and others when they pull back. I think many consumers will sit on the sidelines, waiting for what they view as true value before they buy.
That’s a challenge because this year’s shopping window is shorter. The key for us is testing early — creative, promotions, messaging — to understand what’s resonating, then moving fast once we find it. Agility and data are critical success factors right now.
Q: What signals are you watching to understand how consumer behavior is evolving?
October is usually the first read around Indigenous Peoples’ Day or Amazon’s deal events, and this year those were softer. That told us there’s caution in the air.
Veterans Day is another moment we watch closely. For many consumers, that’s when the season truly starts. We use that period to test messaging: what kind of creative invites people in, what value propositions are cutting through.
Those early signals help us calibrate before we get to Black Friday. Once we see what’s working, we hit the gas.
Q: What do you think shoppers mean by “value” this year?
Value used to mean price, full stop. Now it’s the total experience.
Consumers want quality and durability. If they’re spending hard-earned dollars, they want something that lasts. They’re looking at product reviews, warranties, shipping, and return policies as part of that equation.
At Kizik, we have over 100,000 five-star reviews, and that social validation gives confidence. Complimentary shipping and returns help, too. Even site experience matters. A seamless checkout or flexible payment option can be a form of value.
So yes, price is a factor, but the bigger signal is trust. People are deciding where to spend based on which brand makes them feel confident.
Q: How are you approaching creative and marketing for Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
The platforms have changed a lot. On Meta, for example, the algorithms are now designed for creative diversity. Your content becomes the targeting.
That means the creative itself must do more work. We’re producing more variations than before, experimenting with tone, visual style, and storytelling because the system is using that diversity to find the right audience.
What’s been surprising is how well lo-fi creative performs, things that look more like user-generated posts. It feels authentic and trustworthy. That can be uncomfortable for brands that love polished production, but if it looks too perfect, it doesn’t always fit the feed.
Authenticity is what’s breaking through.
Q: You’ve seen strong loyalty this year despite economic pressure. What’s driving that?
Usually, when the economy is tight, people are less loyal. They look for alternatives. But we’ve seen incredible repeat rates and referrals from our existing customers.
I think it comes down to product integrity and simplicity. Our shoes make life easier, and people feel that. We also redesigned our website to make discovery and checkout seamless, which matters when someone’s buying for the first time.
Loyalty programs help, but the biggest driver is delivering on what you promise every time. That’s what builds trust and keeps people coming back.
Q: For marketers heading into the season, what advice would you give?
The holidays move fast, and no plan survives first contact with Black Friday. Preparation and communication matter more than anything. Here’s what’s helped us stay agile and responsive:
Streamline communication. We have one Slack channel for the entire holiday effort—creative, operations, analytics—all in one place. It eliminates confusion and speeds up decision-making.
Watch leading indicators. Focus on early signals, not lagging data. We monitor performance hour by hour to know when to pivot.
Clear the decks. During Black Friday and Cyber Monday, things move quickly. You have to free up capacity so your team can respond in real time.
Test, learn, repeat. Treat every campaign as a live feedback loop. The insights you gather in November will make you sharper in December.
Stay close to the customer. Data helps, but empathy matters. Listen to what your audience is telling you. They’ll show you what “value” means to them this year.
The more we listen and learn from our customers, the more resilient we become — not just for the season, but for the long term.
Stacey Howe,
SVP of E-Commerce at Kizik
Stacey Howe, SVP of E-Commerce at Kizik, is a 20-year digital brand and commerce veteran who has led strategy, marketing, and customer experience for some of the nation’s top footwear and apparel brands. View profile.
